Recession 2024: What to Watch and How to Prepare

Geopolitical tensions, energy market imbalances, persistently high inflation and rising interest rates have many investors and economists concerned that a U.S. recession is inevitable in 2024.

The risk of a recession rose as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in its ongoing battle against inflation. The recent bank crisis hasn't helped either. While the U.S. economy is still growing, the rate of gross domestic product growth has been falling for the last three quarters and stood at 1.1% in the first quarter of 2024. Whether or not the Fed will pull off a so-called soft landing for the economy this year remains to be seen, however.

Bullish economists would point out that the U.S. job market remains strong enough to counteract the risks that come with monetary policy tightening. In fact, job growth has been accelerating for the past couple of months, which means that workers should continue spending the money they earn. And that could be enough to keep the economy afloat.

Either way you look at it, economic recessions are no reason for panic and have happened regularly over the past century. You can make the most of a difficult situation by knowing which risk factors to watch and how to position your portfolio to optimize performance in a tough market:

Many factors can trigger or contribute to a recession, but there's no question that two specific factors are the biggest risk to economic stability in 2024.

Any investor who hasn't been living under a rock is already aware that the primary economic risk factor in 2024 is inflation. Despite some relative progress, the consumer price index gained 4% year over year in May. It's good news that the figure is down from its 9.1% peak in June 2022, but that's still a far cry from the Fed's goal of 2% inflation.

The Fed has taken an aggressive approach to combat inflation, but the best solution is also the second major economic risk factor in 2024: high interest rates. This scenario increases the cost of borrowing money, discouraging companies from taking on debt to invest in expanding their businesses. Elevated rates also reduce consumer spending, easing demand pressures that have contributed to rising prices.

Starting in March 2022, the Federal Reserve began implementing a series of aggressive interest rate hikes to target inflation. So far, the Fed has raised its fed funds target rate range from essentially zero to its current range of between 5% and 5.25%. The market expects the Fed to maintain that range until late July, when it may begin raising rates once more.

To make matters worse, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has added to uncertainty, making it difficult to predict where the global economy is headed.

Inflation and rising rates have not yet dragged the U.S. economy into the red. In addition to modest first-quarter GDP growth, the U.S. added 339,000 jobs in May, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 3.7%, which is still historically low.

But investors should continue to monitor the labor market along with interest rates. The market is currently pricing in a more than 70% chance that the Fed will hold interest rates at their May levels until July's Fed meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

As the economic picture starts to look increasingly rosy, economists have shifted their views on the likelihood of a recession.

Morgan Stanley said in a post on its website in late March that the banking crisis had increased the risk of recession. "Concerns about financial stability could force the Fed to drop its inflation-fighting efforts prematurely," it said, which could cause stagflation. But the firm has changed its tune, saying last week that the U.S. will avoid a recession this year. Morgan Stanley also predicted that interest rates will remain at current levels until March 2024, when it expects the Fed to begin reducing them.

Goldman Sachs last week revised its prediction down to a 25% chance of recession in the next 12 months from its previous 35% figure published in March. The report listed the resolution of the debt-ceiling fight and a return to banking sector stability as positive signals.

There are several general strategies investors can use to manage risk and take advantage of opportunities during a recession.

First, consider reducing exposure to volatile stocks and increasing cash holdings. Cash may not be the most exciting play, but it reduces market risk and provides financial flexibility if a recession creates potential buying opportunities in 2024. In addition, investors can earn 4% interest or higher in an online savings account right now, and those rates will only continue to rise if the Fed issues more rate hikes.

In addition, value stocks have historically outperformed growth stocks during periods of elevated interest rates. Higher interest rates harm companies' discounted cash flow valuations, which can hurt high-growth stocks.

Certain stocks and market sectors are more defensive than others and tend to outperform the rest of the market during recessions. Utility stocks, health care stocks and consumer staples stocks are considered defensive investments because their earnings tend to be insulated from economic cycles and swings in consumer confidence.

Callie Cox, U.S. investment analyst at eToro, says investors should also take advantage of a potential recession in 2024 and prepare their portfolios for the light at the end of the tunnel in 2024 and beyond.

"Markets look ahead, and that means you could benefit from looking ahead to the next cycle when it comes to your portfolio," Cox says. "Think about what sectors do well early on in an economic recovery: financials, real estate and technology."

Investors can take a diversified approach to these three market sectors by buying S&P 500 sector exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, such as the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF), Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK).

 

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